According to Reuters'median forecast of more than 20 institutions, China's new Renminbi loans in November are expected to be 1.100 billion yuan, or more than 50% annually, but there is still a slight decline compared with the same period last year. On the one hand, the central bank adjusts the MPA assessment to guide financial institutions to enhance credit delivery, on the other hand, the fiscal season at the end of the year is more active. Sexual characteristics may be reflected, capital investment will also stimulate a large number of credit demand, which will support the maintenance and stability of credit growth.
Institutions also forecast that although household deposits are returned from off-balance-sheet financial statements, the decline in social finance will affect corporate cash flow and put pressure on corporate deposits. M2 is expected to grow 8.0% year-on-year in November, which is the same as last month.
"The divergence of the trend between Bill interest rate and capital interest rate in November reflects that the loan quota is relatively loose but the financing demand is still insufficient." In terms of social finance, corporate bond issuance continued to pick up in November, but the contraction of off-balance-sheet financing will continue to drag down social finance, according to the Societe Generale Bank study.
According to the report on the consolidation of CICC, banks still prefer housing loans on the credit supply side due to some doubts about the "125" policy of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission; on the credit demand side, real estate sales this month are unsatisfactory. However, it is known that the general housing loan quota is relatively loose, which may be the result of the loose supply of housing loans caused by the bank's diversion of some of the credit on the balance sheet. On the demand side of enterprises, the primary supply of credit bonds increased in November, and some loan demand turned to bonds. It is estimated that 1 trillion yuan of new credit will be added.
Bank of Communications Financial Research Center reported that the current downward pressure on the economy is still strong, financial institutions are relatively cautious in lending; at the same time, the central bank may be more proactive in guiding financial institutions to enhance credit delivery, the latter may have a positive role in promoting credit delivery in the coming months, of course. It will take some time for the effect of multi-measures to be reflected.
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