If the US-China trade war escalates, the global economy will slow down even more

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      Reuters'latest survey of more than 500 analysts this month showed that respondents were asked about their views on 46 economies. They downgraded their growth forecasts for 33 of them this year, kept their growth forecasts unchanged for 10 economies, and only upgraded their growth forecasts for three smaller economies.
Inflation forecasts have also been lowered in most economies this year, with both low and high inflation forecasts falling.
More than half of the nearly 270 economists who answered additional questions believed that a further escalation of the trade war between the United States and China could trigger a more serious global slowdown this year.
The deadline set by the US side for reaching an agreement is March 1. Otherwise, further tariffs will be imposed on another $200 billion of Chinese imports to the US. But at present, there is still a long way to go between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on some structural issues that are crucial to the agreement.
These concerns coincide with the growing unease among market experts in the Reuters survey. Over the past few months, experts have consistently lowered their price estimates for all kinds of assets, from stock indices to bond yields and even oil prices.


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