When China's August economic data weakly exceed market expectations, when the Sino-US trade frictions lasting for more than a year affect China's economy in a silent way and increase downward pressure during the structural transition period, the slowdown of China's economic growth will continue for a considerable period of time, while the breakdown of GDP growth rate of 6 may be only a matter of time. The "de-housing" is undoubtedly an important part of economic restructuring.
This may be the reason why overseas investors and research institutes accustomed to China's rapid economic growth are bullying China. However, in the eyes of experts, the slowdown of China's economic growth only conforms to the normal deceleration of internal and external factors and economic cycle, but it will not stall. The "six stability" policy to prevent future disasters will still be the main theme of future macro-control.
In the ammunition depot of macro-control economy at the decision-making level, besides traditional fiscal and monetary policies, it is undeniable that the ability of administrative means to regulate economy will also play an unexpected role, although this may lead to criticism of some "institutional drawbacks more solidified".
"On the basis of the rapid expansion of China's economy in the first 40 years, it is bound to shift gears and decelerate. This deceleration trend will continue for some time, but the express train of China's economy will not derail and fall into the"middle income trap", even though the GDP growth rate of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) will"break 6"at 5. About 5% is also the fastest growth rate in the world's major economies, and there is no risk of economic stall. " Chen Dongqi, chief expert of China Academy of Macroeconomics, said.
If you look at the recent reports of domestic and foreign research institutions, it is not difficult to find that the judgment of China's economic slowdown has become a consensus. Only in this consensus, although there is a general expectation of China's sustained economic downturn, whether to continue to adopt the old method of flooding, or to use the new way of innovative reform, there are endless discussions on how to maintain a firm choice of policies when the pressure of economic downturn is increasing, which tests the wisdom of policy makers.
At the 10th meeting of the Shenzhen Reform Commission recently chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping, it was emphasized that the implementation of various reform tasks since the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee should focus on tamping the base and pillars and beams in the early stage, comprehensively advancing and building up momentum in the medium term, and now we should focus on strengthening system integration, synergy and efficiency. On the other hand, we should consolidate and deepen the reform achievements made in resolving institutional obstacles, institutional obstacles and policy innovation in recent years, and promote the maturity and stereotyping of various systems.
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