The decline of the high base effect and the recovery of Sino US trade relations have brought about a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in China's import and export in October, which is better than the general expectation of the market, and the foreign trade data is expected to stabilize. However, considering that Sino US trade relations are only a gradual easing, external demand is still weak, and it is expected that exports will not rebound significantly in the short term.
Chinese and US officials said yesterday that the two sides agreed to lift tariffs on each other's goods during the 16 month long trade war as part of the first phase of the trade agreement, which analysts said further enhanced confidence in foreign trade and eased trade concerns, but not enough to fully offset the pressure on China's exports from the slowdown in global economic growth.
"The improvement of PMI in Europe and America in recent two months, and the traditional western consumption peak season from November to December, the stabilization of foreign demand, together with the easing of trade friction between China and the United States, is conducive to the recovery of import and export." Hua Bao trust Macro Analyst Nie Wen said.
China's General Administration of Customs announced on Friday that exports in US dollar denominated October fell 0.9% year-on-year, while imports fell 6.4% year-on-year. The median of Reuters survey estimates was - 3.9% and - 8.9% respectively; the trade surplus was US $42.81 billion, and the median of Reuters forecast was US $40.83 billion.
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