China's economic downward pressure is hard to reverse in the short term

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      Yu Xuejun, chairman of the board of supervisors of key state-owned financial institutions of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that the downward pressure on the domestic economy is difficult to reverse in the short term, which is determined by the macro conditions of China's economic growth at this stage. From the perspective of the external international situation, that is, China's foreign demand, 2019 will be a difficult year, but there may be a turnaround next year; however, the rapid rise of CPI will add new pressure to the macro-control policy.
He pointed out in the "finance and economics annual meeting 2020: prediction and strategy" that from the financial point of view, China is now in the stage of deleveraging and steady leverage, the asset bubble has begun to shrink, and the exposure of default risk has increased significantly, which brings new difficulties to economic growth such as production and investment; meanwhile, the risk of a small number of small and medium financial institutions is rising, which also brings certain influence to support the development of entity enterprises. Ring.
"I think there is really a lot of uncertainty in 2020, and the external environment is likely to change a lot. The trend adjustment of global monetary policy and the development and change of science and technology, especially 5g commercial application, will have a great impact on the economic development next year. 2020 is a year worthy of careful observation and expectation. " Yu Xuejun said.
He believes that the external environment is likely to change greatly in 2020. First, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment since the end of July this year has cut interest rates three times in a row. At the same time, the Federal Reserve stopped reducing its balance sheet and recently began to inject liquidity into the financial market, which will have a significant impact on the United States and the global market. It will also cause changes in the currency exchange rates of various countries, and may stimulate the recovery of global demand in the second half of next year, thus stimulating world economic growth.
Second, some breakthroughs and innovations in science and technology, such as the commercialization of 5g, have begun. Many changes may be unexpected or beyond our imagination. Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, blockchain, etc. seem to be on the eve of breakthrough. In addition, the development and application of 5g technology may also provide unexpected help, which will have a significant impact on economic growth, and some even have a direct impact on finance, currency, etc.


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