U.S. retail sales are expected to grow 3.5-4.1 percent to more than $3.9 trillion in 2020, despite concerns about the new coronavirus epidemic and the ongoing trade war, the National Retail Federation said Wednesday.
The National Retail Federation said steady wage growth, falling interest rates and strong consumer confidence supported its forecast. It also predicted that the new coronavirus epidemic would not become a global pandemic.
However, if Chinese factories continue to shut down, it is expected to hit sales, the Federation said. The forecast includes online and physical store sales.
Preliminary results show that retail sales in 2019 will grow by 3.7% to $3.79 trillion compared with 2018, with a growth rate of at least 3.8% beyond its forecast, the association said.
"There are always unknown factors that we can't control, such as the coronavirus and the political election year," said Matthew Shay, NRF president and chief executive, "but when it comes to fundamentals, our economy is healthy and consumers continue to take the lead."
Jack Kleinhenz, NRF's chief analyst, said that despite "more moderate economic growth," consumers are still spending, driven by solid wage growth and a strong job market.
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